Keepers Fantasy Football
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Week 3 Preview

2026-09-24

Ryan's Picks Record:
Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 7-5

KFFL AI Picks Record:
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 7-7

KFFL AI Picks for Week 3:
Pack Attack (1-1) over Rapids Plungers (1-1)
16hrs Ahead of You!! (1-1) over Big Papa (2-0)
Bossman (1-1) over BIGBOY! (1-1)
DaUnderdog (1-1) over Starrfavrerodg (1-1)
HHH (1-1) over Sportsfreak (0-2)
PackerFANatic7 (1-1) over pack slayer (0-2)
U Don't Know (2-0) over teamAlaska (1-1)

Something happened this week that I am not sure has ever happened before: there is not a single family game on the board. No brother battle, no father and son, no Lindgren civil war. Fourteen teams, seven games, and every last one of them is against somebody you are allowed to be nice to at Thanksgiving. Enjoy it, because it will not last.

Pack Attack (1-1) vs Rapids Plungers (1-1)

I would like to tell you that last week was a fluke and that we have moved on. 66.75 points. P Nacua did not play, L Jackson led the team with 10.97, and the whole thing was over by about two o'clock. So where does that leave us? Through two weeks Pack Attack has scored 180.46 points, which is 13th out of fourteen teams in this league, and only two Pack Attack seasons in twenty-three years have opened worse than that. Those were 2022 and 2024. Neither of those ended in January.

The hope is that P Nacua will be back this week although he is still not practicing. Having him on the field changes what this team is. L Jackson at 19.55 against Dallas is the best spot he has had all year. Add those two together and you are most of the way to a respectable afternoon, which is a low bar, but it is the bar.

Rapids Plungers arrive 1-1 and unbothered, sitting fifth in the league in scoring at 128.3 a game, and they own this series 11-6 across seventeen regular season meetings with a scoring edge of better than five a game. They have also won the last two. But look closer at that history and something jumps out: these two have met in the postseason six times, more than any other pairing on the board this week, and Pack Attack leads that 4-2. Twenty years of January. And B Robinson goes tonight in Green Bay, the #2 overall pick who managed 8.25 last week, so the Plungers will know quite a lot about their week before Sunday even starts.

Prediction:

I don't pick my own games, so this one goes to the KFFL AI again, and for the first time this season it has come back on my side. Pack Attack at 51.3%, which is about as thin a margin as it knows how to produce. The case for it is straightforward enough: L Jackson has the better matchup of the two quarterbacks, and the gap between these two rosters this week is under two points before anybody plays. The case against it is the entire history of this series, a Rapids Plungers team scoring 128 a game, and the small matter of Pack Attack putting up 66 points eight days ago. I will take it. Pack Attack in a close one.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 17
  • Record: Advantage Rapids Plungers at 11-6
  • PPG Avg: Advantage Rapids Plungers 124.92 to 119.40
  • Current Streak: Pack Attack L2
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — Pack Attack 109.11, Rapids Plungers 111.64
  • Playoff Meetings: 6 (Pack Attack leads 4-2)

16hrs Ahead of You!! (1-1) vs Big Papa (2-0) — GAME OF THE WEEK

Second week in a row that 16hrs has drawn the Game of the Week, and this one is worth more than last week's was. Call it 29 points of playoff probability to each of them. 16hrs sits at 60.3% to make the playoffs with a win and 31.2% with a loss. Big Papa goes from 56.1% down to 26.6%. One game in September, and half the season swings on it.

Big Papa is 2-0 and nobody quite believes it, including me. They have 216.90 points through two weeks, which is 11th in this league, and they are the only 2-0 team scoring below the league average. Last week they went 3-10 against the field and won anyway. They are getting away with it, and that is a real skill, but the bill comes eventually. It might come this week, because they have three starters carrying questionable tags — J Coker, J Meyers and S Barkley — and C.J. Stroud projected for 14.82 sitting on their bench behind J Goff. We have already watched one team in this league lose a game by 1.28 points with the answer on their bench. Twice would be careless.

16hrs meanwhile lost C Williams to a hamstring late in the fourth quarter last week and have moved K Murray in at quarterback, which is not nothing. But J Gibbs is projected for 18.50, B Irving has been steady, and this roster is third in the league in scoring at 133.1 a game. They have also won three straight in this series, all the more impressive because Big Papa leads it 12-10 all-time and outscores them by eight a game. The last meeting was a 122.09 to 89.74 beating.

Prediction: 16hrs has the biggest weapon in the game with J Gibbs and his projection shows it but I think the resurgence of B Irving through two weeks has been more of the story. It is also worth mentioning that the breakout season for D Kincaid may finally be here and 16 hrs timed it right! For Big Papa, Goff at home is a plus but with Saquon questionable and others in tougher matchups I like 16hrs to get the win. Maybe there is a way for Big Papa this week? Maybe if C Loveland remembers that the football season has started or if Saquon gets his normal workload and turns that into something? Maybe... but I will stick with 16hrs to get the win.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 22
  • Record: Advantage Big Papa at 12-10
  • PPG Avg: Advantage Big Papa 114.48 to 106.47
  • Current Streak: 16hrs W3
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — 16hrs 122.09, Big Papa 89.74

BIGBOY! (1-1) vs Bossman (1-1)

Time to talk about the three-peat, because it is not going well. BIGBOY! has 184.62 points through two weeks. In seventeen seasons in this league they have started slower than that exactly twice. They are 12th in scoring, they went 1-12 against the field last week, J Jefferson is projected for 12.51 and B Mayfield for 13.86. Nobody in twenty-two years has won three in a row and right now they look like a team that would settle for six wins.

Except. In 2024 this same team started 0-2 with 172.5 points, worse than where they sit today, and won the whole thing. In 2018 they started 0-2 and won the whole thing. So before anybody gets comfortable, understand that this particular franchise has made a habit of looking dead in September and collecting hardware in January. It is the most annoying trick in the league and they have pulled it twice.

Bossman is the better team this week by a distance and the numbers are not shy about it — 65.7% to the KFFL AI, and they are fourth in the league in scoring at 130.1 a game. J Smith-Njigba is back after putting up 44.75 last week, the highest individual score anybody managed, in a game Bossman lost by 22. They went 11-2 against the field and got nothing. Bossman leads this series 9-7 and outscores BIGBOY! by better than eleven a game, though BIGBOY! has won the last three including a 98.84 to 96.67 squeaker a year ago. These two have also met five times in the playoffs, with Bossman up 3-2, most recently in 2024 — a year BIGBOY! ended up winning.

Prediction: This BIGBOY! team needs a shot of life from somewhere. Maybe it will be J Jacobs coming back sooner rather then later or maybe it will be tonight with Drake London now that they he has a real QB throwing him the ball. I don't especially like anyone on their team this week outside of the obvious in J Jefferson and I do think G Wilson is in for a nice day against the Lions. The rest feels suspect at best. Bossman has two guys I love this week in Henry and JSN (duh). Judkins is in a sneaky nice spot this week and Burrow is always capable of putting up big numbers. I like Bossman to get the win here and put our reigning champ into a early season hole.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 16
  • Record: Advantage Bossman at 9-7
  • PPG Avg: Advantage Bossman 123.91 to 112.38
  • Current Streak: BIGBOY! W3
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — BIGBOY! 98.84, Bossman 96.67
  • Playoff Meetings: 5 (Bossman leads 3-2)

DaUnderdog (1-1) vs Starrfavrerodg (1-1)

Here is the closest game on the board and it is not particularly close to being close. These two rosters are four tenths of a point apart before anybody has played a snap. Four tenths! The KFFL AI has DaUnderdog at 51.3% and Yahoo has it at a flat 50/50, which is the first time I can remember seeing that number on a Yahoo matchup page.

DaUnderdog is coming off 174.54, the highest score in the league last week, and they did it going 13-0 against the field — the only clean sweep anybody managed. D Adams went for 40.35 of it, a fact I have made my peace with. And here is the thing that should worry everybody else: B Bowers still has not played a down this season. He is on the bench, questionable, projected for 11.21. If he suits up, this team just got better while scoring 174 without him.

Starrfavrerodg gets their entire Packers stack going tonight — C Watson, T Kraft and T Smack all in the Atlanta game. Last week that stack produced 22.80 combined, and they will be looking for the same or more tonight. Tonight's game will set the tone for their week, which is either a wonderful way to live or a terrible one. The series is dead even at 3-3 across six regular season meetings, but DaUnderdog has taken the last four and both playoff meetings, including one a year ago.

Prediction: I have noticed this in a few other matchups where teams are starting two TE's. DaUnderdog is one of them and this is without Bowers so they have three serviceable TE's on their roster at the moment. I do think Bowers plays and that helps DaUnderdog out a lot! The other injury news is something we need to keep an eye on because if Nacua is out again then that clearly benefits Adams and also with A Jones not practicing I am not sure what to think there. For Starrfavrerodg I realy like Cook, Downs and one of either Kraft or Watson will have a solid game tonight. If they both do then look out! I kind of expect this to be a let down spot for DaUnderdog and I am going with Starrfavrerodg to get the win!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 6
  • Record: Dead even at 3-3
  • PPG Avg: Advantage Starrfavrerodg 101.63 to 98.60
  • Current Streak: DaUnderdog W4
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — DaUnderdog 106.82, Starrfavrerodg 101.95
  • Playoff Meetings: 2 (DaUnderdog leads 2-0)

HHH (1-1) vs Sportsfreak (0-2)

I have to be honest about how bad this has gotten for Sportsfreak. They have 145.64 points through two weeks. That is the worst start in their twenty-three seasons in this league by twenty-seven points, and their previous worst was back in 2006. They are 0-2, they are 2-24 against the field, they are dead last in the league in scoring and dead last in projected points this week. And now J Daniels is out for multiple weeks.

The cruel part, and this league specializes in cruel parts, is that B Young is their starting quarterback this week. B Young is the player who sat on their bench scoring 24.14 last Sunday while J Daniels got hurt before halftime and never came back. They lost that game by nine and a half points with the answer already on the roster. Teams that start 0-2 in this league have made the playoffs sixteen times out of seventy-four, so it is not over. It is just not good.

HHH comes in 1-1 off a week where they scored 95.98, left 60.34 on their bench and won anyway because Pack Attack couldn't figure out how to score any points. They have J Chase at 15.35 and T McBride at 12.85 and a roster that is fine. What they do not have is history, because Sportsfreak leads this series 14-10 across twenty-four meetings, outscores them by nearly four a game and has won the last three including a 112.58 to 99 win a year ago. So the team that cannot score anything owns the team that can.

Prediction:

HHH got a nice bounce back type of game last week from Chase and they are going to need that again this week if they want to win. I expect Love to have a nice game tonight it will just be a matter of does he throw in the TD's or does some running back steal it? I don't love too many other things for this roster outside of the obvious in T McBride! The best thing for them though is that every one of their players gets volume and in a 14 team league that matters so while I don't love any of them they are all fine and HHH scoring 100 points again this week seems likely. Sportsfreak needs the win and I like their RB spots this week with Chase and Hampton and it was nice to see a good game from T McMillan but I just can't pick this team right now. Until they show me something on Sunday's I am going with HHH to find a way to win.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 24
  • Record: Advantage Sportsfreak at 14-10
  • PPG Avg: Advantage Sportsfreak 116.98 to 113.23
  • Current Streak: HHH L3
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — HHH 99, Sportsfreak 112.58

pack slayer (0-2) vs PackerFANatic7 (1-1)

Every year there is a team that scores a pile of points and cannot buy a win, and I said two weeks ago that pack slayer has historically been that team. Well. They are 0-2 with 238.82 points, which is the sixth most in the league, and it is also the seventh highest-scoring 0-2 start in the twenty-three year history of this league. They are losing in a way that most teams have to work at.

And they hopefully get both of their starters back. DJ Moore, who got hurt reaching for a touchdown and finished at negative 0.07, is questionable. N Collins is in the starting lineup right now but he is also questionable. M Stafford put up 33.47 last week after his 1.03 opener and they lost anyway. At some point the math has to turn, and when it does somebody is going to catch 160.

PackerFANatic7 is 1-1 after doing exactly what they were supposed to do last week, riding C Lamb (37.65) and D Prescott (31.31) to 122.66. Both are back and both are projected well, with C Lamb at 14.18 and D Prescott at 17.24 in the Dallas game against Baltimore. They have lost J Reed for this week and potentially longer. The series here is the tightest on the board — pack slayer leads it 5-4 across nine meetings and the scoring gap is 129.66 to 129.11, which is barely half a point a game across nine years. Last year's meeting went 100.01 to 99.83. These two do not blow each other out.

Prediction:

Is this the week that pack slayer gets the win. I don't think so. Collins was not practicing as of this writing which makes me worried he won't play and he is a big weapon for pack slayer with not a lot of depth behind him. K Walker may need to score 40 for them to win (which he certainly could). PackerFANatic7 will be looking for more from L McConkey this week as you can't expect Dak and CeeDee to put up those kind of #'s every week. I think this one could be tight again but I expect PackerFANatic7 to find a way to win this one!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 9
  • Record: Advantage pack slayer at 5-4
  • PPG Avg: Advantage pack slayer 129.66 to 129.11
  • Current Streak: pack slayer W2
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — pack slayer 100.01, PackerFANatic7 99.83

teamAlaska (1-1) vs U Don't Know (2-0)

This is the most lopsided number on the board and there is a good reason for it. U Don't Know is 2-0 with 336.94 points, the fifth best two week start in the history of this league out of 312 team seasons. They are 25-1 against the field. J Allen is projected for 20.38, A St. Brown for 15.93, and P Mahomes is projected for 18.44 on their bench. That is what a real team looks like.

teamAlaska has been taken apart by injuries. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve. Z Flowers is questionable and on the bench. J Price got hurt in the second half last week, finished with 2.87, and is starting this week while still carrying a questionable tag. They are projected for 97.37, the lowest total in the league, and they are starting M Lemon and R Shaheed in a week where they would rather not be.

And yet the history is worth a look, because teamAlaska actually outscores U Don't Know across nineteen regular season meetings, 117.01 to 113.69. U Don't Know leads the series 11-8 and won last year 119.54 to 114.42, but this has been a competitive pairing for twenty years. It does not look like one this week.

Prediction:

So you can imagine who I am picking here. I think the injuries are going to be too much for teamAlaska to overcome. If Flowers goes that helps a ton and gives them a shot but considering he is still not practicing I don't see him playing. U Don't Know should keep things rolling and remain undefeated with a win in this one.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

  • Regular Season Match-ups: 19
  • Record: Advantage U Don't Know at 11-8
  • PPG Avg: Advantage teamAlaska 117.01 to 113.69
  • Current Streak: teamAlaska L1
  • Last Meeting: 2025 — teamAlaska 114.42, U Don't Know 119.54

My Picks

16hrs Ahead of You!! over Big Papa
Bossman over BIGBOY!
Starrfavrerodg over DaUnderdog
HHH over Sportsfreak
PackerFANatic7 over pack slayer
U Don't Know over teamAlaska

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