preview

Week 4 Preview

2026-10-01

Ryan's Picks Record:
Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 11-7

KFFL AI Picks Record:
Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 12-9

KFFL AI Picks for Week 4:
Pack Attack (1-2) over Sportsfreak (0-3)
HHH (2-1) over 16hrs Ahead of You!! (2-1)
Bossman (2-1) over Big Papa (2-1)
BIGBOY! (1-2) over teamAlaska (1-2)
DaUnderdog (2-1) over PackerFANatic7 (1-2)
U Don't Know (3-0) over pack slayer (1-2)
Rapids Plungers (2-1) over Starrfavrerodg (1-2)

A quarter of the season is gone after this week and the standings have started to mean something. One team is undefeated, one team is winless, and the eleven of us in between are all one bad Sunday from being in actual trouble.

Pack Attack (1-2) vs Sportsfreak (0-3)

Two teams that need this about equally, for different reasons. Pack Attack has 286.46 points through three weeks, which is the fourth lowest start in twenty-three seasons of running this team, and the three below it did not end well either. Sportsfreak has 209.96, the worst three week stretch in their entire history, and they are 0-3 for the fourth time ever.

The good news, and I am almost afraid to type it, is that P Nacua is projected to be back. This lineup looks much better with Lamar Jackson and Nacua in it. Both do carry questionable tags, as does C Okonkwo, so Sunday morning is going to involve some refreshing. But a healthy version of this lineup has not actually played yet, and that is either an excuse or a reason for optimism depending on how whose side you are on.

The series is the tightest thing on the board. Twenty-five regular season meetings and Pack Attack leads 13-12, by four points a game, and the last one was decided by 1.12 points. These two have also met three times in the playoffs and Pack Attack has won all three. For a team sitting 0-3 and dead last in the league in scoring, Sportsfreak has a far better claim here than the standings suggest, and B Young (16.03) and C Brown (14.14) are both in reasonable spots.

Prediction:

I don't pick my own games, so this one goes to the KFFL AI, and it likes Pack Attack at 58.7%. The case is mostly about who is finally healthy — getting P Nacua back alongside L Jackson is a bigger week-over-week swing than anything Sportsfreak has added, and Sportsfreak has not scored 90 points in a game yet this season. The case against is that a 13-12 series does not care about any of that, and that a winless team with this much talent is going to break out eventually and it may as well be against the team sitting right above them. Pack Attack, and not comfortably.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 25
Record: Advantage Pack Attack at 13-12
PPG Avg: Advantage Pack Attack 117.39 to 113.32
Current Streak: Pack Attack W2
Last Meeting: 2025 — Pack Attack 117.54, Sportsfreak 116.42
Playoff Meetings: 3 (Pack Attack leads 3-0)

16hrs Ahead of You!! (2-1) vs HHH (2-1) — GAME OF THE WEEK

Third week running that 16hrs has drawn the Game of the Week, which has to be some kind of record. Two 2-1 teams, twenty-four meetings all time, and the series is dead even at 12-12. You could not build a closer matchup if you tried.

And the stakes are real. 16hrs sits at 71.6% to make the playoffs with a win and 46.2% with a loss. HHH goes from 60.7% down to 32.7%. That is a 28 point swing for HHH in week four, which is the sort of thing that does not feel like it should be possible this early and yet here we are.

What makes it interesting is that the two teams got to 2-1 in completely different ways. 16hrs is scoring 133.8 a game, second most in the league, and has lost once. HHH is scoring 109.1 and has won two games it had no business winning, including one where they left 60 points on their bench. One of these teams is good and one of them is getting away with it, and this is the week we find out which is which. HHH does hold the scoring edge all time at 110.14 to 104.17, though the last meeting was a 147.36 to 88.41 demolition in favor of 16hrs, so recent history is not kind to them.

16hrs is likely without C Williams for a second straight week which means K Murray (16.26) keeps the job. And HHH has J Herbert projected 12.13 sitting on their bench behind J Love (15.20), which is precisely the arrangement that cost them a game by 1.28 points in week one. Some lessons take a while.

Prediction: Both of these two teams have great offenses so we should be in for a treat. J Gibbs is sooo good and through three weeks it has been easy to see why he went #1 overall. Chase went #3 and has been solid as well. K Murray should be in for a nice game against Mia. I am going to go with 16hrs to get the win in a close one that will most certainly come down to the Sunday night game!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 24
Record: Dead even at 12-12
PPG Avg: Advantage HHH 110.14 to 104.17
Current Streak: 16hrs W1
Last Meeting: 2025 — 16hrs 147.36, HHH 88.41

Big Papa (2-1) vs Bossman (2-1)

Here is the game where the bill finally comes due. Big Papa is 2-1 and I have spent two straight weeks writing that the underlying numbers hate them, and this week Yahoo projects them for 98.55, the only team in the league under 100. They are 15-24 against the field on the season. They have B Hall doubtful and J Coker and J Meyers both questionable. And they have C.J. Stroud projected 16.79 on their bench behind J Goff (16.40), which is a sentence I have now written about this team three weeks in a row.

Bossman, meanwhile, is playing the best football in the league. They are scoring 139.3 a game, they went 12-1 against the field last week, and they are 32-7 against the league on the season which is the best mark anybody has. J Smith-Njigba has been the single best player in this league through three weeks. And they have three starters going Thursday night in Q Judkins, M Pittman Jr. and H Fannin Jr., 25.88 projected between them, so they will have a quarter of their week banked before Sunday morning.

The history agrees. Bossman leads this series 13-7 across twenty meetings and outscores Big Papa by nearly thirteen a game, they have won the last two, and the last one was 132.9 to 104.61. They have also won two of three playoff meetings. There is not much here for Big Papa to hold onto except the record, and records are the one thing that has been lying about this team all year.

Prediction: I think you may be able to figure out where I am going with this one. Big Papa has injuries to deal with and not a lot of depth. I like Bossman to get the relatively easy win in this one!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 20
Record: Advantage Bossman at 13-7
PPG Avg: Advantage Bossman 122.57 to 109.91
Current Streak: Big Papa L2
Last Meeting: 2025 — Big Papa 104.61, Bossman 132.9
Playoff Meetings: 3 (Bossman leads 2-1)

BIGBOY! (1-2) vs teamAlaska (1-2)

Two 1-2 teams going in opposite emotional directions, separated by less than a point in the projections. 104.42 to 103.54. Nobody has any idea.

The BIGBOY! situation has become genuinely strange. They have a new quarterback — B Mayfield is gone and J Brissett (14.96) starts. T Etienne Jr. is out, J Jacobs is at zero, D Goedert is doubtful. And J Jefferson is a game time decision, which in a game projected inside a single point makes him more or less the entire margin. If he plays they are probably favored. If he does not, this becomes a very different afternoon, and we will not know until Sunday. The three-peat chase is 1-2 and reshuffling the roster in week four.

But here is the thing nobody should forget. In 2024 this exact franchise started 0-4 and won the championship. Only three teams in twenty-two years have started 0-4 and reached the playoffs at all, and BIGBOY! is one of them, and they did not just reach it, they won the whole thing. So anybody writing them off has not been paying attention.

teamAlaska arrives off 58.69 points, the lowest score anybody has put up all season, in a week where D Maye went negative. They get Z Flowers back in the lineup at 12.55 and J Taylor (15.45) is in the 8:30 in the morning game, but A.J. Brown is still on injured reserve and both Flowers and J Price are questionable. BIGBOY! leads this series 9-8 and outscores them by better than fourteen a game, and won the last meeting 145.15 to 128.93.

Prediction: The injury situation as mentioned makes this a hard one to predict. I don't see a lot of points anywhere for either of these two teams. I know the yahoo projections have them both just over 100 but I see more of a 95 to 85 type of game. This is a BIG game for both teams but here is how I see it. D Maye has been getting a lot of flak this week (rightfully so). I expect a nice bounce back game from him, which considering he scored negative points it won't take much! I also expect Taylor and Z Flowers to perform well and interestingly enough if Jefferson sits that helps Addison for teamAlaska. I think teamAlaska wins this one as I could see Jefferson sitting for a week given the Vikings are playing the lowly Dolphins! teamAlaska with the win!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 17
Record: Advantage BIGBOY! at 9-8
PPG Avg: Advantage BIGBOY! 129.34 to 114.86
Current Streak: BIGBOY! W2
Last Meeting: 2025 — BIGBOY! 145.15, teamAlaska 128.93

DaUnderdog (2-1) vs PackerFANatic7 (1-2)

The only family game on the board this week, and it is the uncle against the nephew. It has also been one of the most one sided series in this league — DaUnderdog is 9-1 in ten meetings and outscores PackerFANatic7 by nearly twenty-four points a game. Nine and one! Last year's meeting was 160.86 to 114.11.

And the timing could not be worse for the nephew. D Achane is gone for the season with a torn ACL, and the replacement in that running back slot is projected for 4.46 against the 13.91 Achane carried last week. That is a nine point hole in a game they are already projected to lose by fifteen. K Sadiq and L McConkey are both questionable on top of it. PackerFANatic7 is 1-2 and has just lost a cornerstone, and the waiver wire in a fourteen team league is not going to hand them a solution.

DaUnderdog is the hottest team in the league and it is not close. 152.5 points a game, 176.14 last week with a 13-0 record against the field, and B Bowers is now fully integrated at 12.80 after missing the first two weeks entirely. They are projected 120.50, highest in the league this week. This has the look of a beating.

Prediction: PackerFANatic7 is a good GM and is doing everything they can to piece together a competitive roster but I don't see them making it work this week against DaUnderdog. I do however expect it to be a little closer then some may think. Adams may not perform like he has the past two weeks with Nacua expected back but they have many other weapons in CMC and Bowers who should lead them to victory. I like DaUnderdog in this one!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 10
Record: Advantage DaUnderdog at 9-1
PPG Avg: Advantage DaUnderdog 129.44 to 105.72
Current Streak: DaUnderdog W3
Last Meeting: 2025 — DaUnderdog 160.86, PackerFANatic7 114.11

pack slayer (1-2) vs U Don't Know (3-0)

The only undefeated team left against the team that cannot catch a break, and the history says the opposite of what the standings do. pack slayer leads this series 11-5 across sixteen meetings and outscores U Don't Know by eleven a game, and beat them in their one playoff meeting. Last year's game went 105.83 to 103.33.

U Don't Know is 3-0 but last week was a warning. They scored 97.28 and went 2-11 against the field, meaning eleven of the other thirteen teams would have beaten them, and they drew the one opponent who could not. That is not a criticism of a 3-0 team so much as an observation that they have been excellent twice and lucky once, and the schedule will not keep covering for them. They are projected 117.02 and still have P Mahomes (17.37) sitting on their bench behind J Allen (19.42), which is a luxury nobody else in this league has.

pack slayer finally got their first win last week after two weeks of scoring a pile and losing anyway, and they look to be getting N Collins back in the lineup at 13.62. But R Dowdle is now out and DJ Moore is questionable, so they have traded one problem for another. They are 28-11 against the field on the season, third best in the league, with a 1-2 record to show for it. This should be a good one!

Prediction: Having Nico Collins really helps this pack slayer team to look so much better! Walker has been lights out and I don't have a reason to think he won't be again this week. I am a little concerned they may ease Collins back in but the matchup seems solid. I could see this being another close matchup but I expect U Don't Know to keep things rolling and stay undefeated led by a big game from J Allen!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 16
Record: Advantage pack slayer at 11-5
PPG Avg: Advantage pack slayer 115.79 to 104.79
Current Streak: pack slayer W1
Last Meeting: 2025 — pack slayer 105.83, U Don't Know 103.33
Playoff Meetings: 1 (pack slayer leads 1-0)

Rapids Plungers (2-1) vs Starrfavrerodg (1-2)

The newest series in the league, only seven regular season meetings, and Starrfavrerodg actually leads it 4-3 despite being outscored by nearly five a game. They have also lost both playoff meetings, which is the sort of split that tells you these two have been closer than the results suggest.

Rapids Plungers is 2-1 and scoring 132.1 a game, and B Robinson (17.17) has turned into exactly what the #2 overall pick was supposed to be after that slow start. The wrinkle is timing: B Robinson and C Olave (14.18) are both in the Monday night game, so a meaningful chunk of their week does not resolve until the very end.

Starrfavrerodg has the opposite problem. Their Packers stack is back for a third straight week — C Watson (11.63), T Kraft (8.80) and T Smack (8.69), about 29 points projected between the three of them, all in the same Sunday game. When that works they are dangerous and when it does not they score 103 and lose, which is what happened last week. I keep needling them about it and they keep doing it, so at this point I respect the commitment.

Prediction: I don't see many scenarios where this game doesn't come down to the Monday night game. If you are Starrfavrerodg no lead is going to feel safe as Rapids Plungers two best players are going on Monday. 60 points scored between the two is easily within their realm of possibility. The real question is how big of a lead will Starrfavrerodg have going into that Monday night game. My guess is 27 and I expect that Bijan and Olave will combine for over 27 and lead Rapids Plungers to win # 3 on the season!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 7
Record: Advantage Starrfavrerodg at 4-3
PPG Avg: Advantage Rapids Plungers 116.49 to 111.68
Current Streak: Rapids Plungers W1
Last Meeting: 2025 — Rapids Plungers 120.53, Starrfavrerodg 93.65
Playoff Meetings: 2 (Rapids Plungers leads 2-0)

My Picks

16hrs Ahead of You!! over HHH
Bossman over Big Papa
teamAlaska over BIGBOY!
DaUnderdog over PackerFANatic7
U Don't Know over pack slayer
Rapids Plungers over Starrfavrerodg