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Week 5 Preview

2026-10-08

Ryan's Picks Record:
Last Week: 3-3
Overall: 14-10

KFFL AI Picks Record:
Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 15-13

KFFL AI Picks for Week 5:
Pack Attack (1-3) over Starrfavrerodg (2-2)
16hrs Ahead of You!! (2-2) over Sportsfreak (1-3)
teamAlaska (2-2) over Big Papa (2-2)
BIGBOY! (1-3) over pack slayer (2-2)
Bossman (3-1) over HHH (3-1)
U Don't Know (3-1) over DaUnderdog (3-1)
Rapids Plungers (2-2) over PackerFANatic7 (1-3)

Bye weeks have arrived and they have not been handed out evenly. Sportsfreak lost T McMillan, X Worthy and B Young all at once. pack slayer lost K Walker III. HHH lost both C Hubbard and H Butker. Half this league spent Tuesday on the waiver wire patching holes, and it shows — the KFFL AI has six of these seven games inside six points of a coin flip, which is the least confident it has been all season. Nobody knows anything this week. Let the fun begin!

Pack Attack (1-3) vs Starrfavrerodg (2-2)

Three straight losses and 1-3, and Pack Attack has been here before more often than he would like — this is the ninth time in twenty-three seasons that Pack Attack has started 1-3 or worse. Teams that start 1-3 in this league have made the playoffs twelve times out of seventy-three. Sixteen percent. Not great odds for all you 1-3 teams out there.

And now the quarterback situation. L Jackson is questionable and probably not playing, Yahoo has him projected for 6.79, and there is no backup quarterback anywhere on this roster. So the week starts with a trip to the waiver wire to find somebody to throw the football, which is not where you want to be in October. P Nacua (16.05) is the one genuinely good thing here, and he is in the Monday night game, so this will take until the very end.

Starrfavrerodg arrives 2-2 and leads this young series 4-2 with a scoring edge of nearly six a game. But here is the thing that makes this matchup strange, and it is one of the more remarkable results in league history: the last time these two played, Pack Attack won 174.47 to 58.32. A 116.15 point margin. That is the eighth largest in the 2,296 games this league has ever played. It is also the only reason this series is not more lopsided than it already is. They also have the Packers stack out again for a fourth straight week in C Watson, T Kraft and T Smack, and three starters in the Monday night game.

Prediction:

I don't pick my own games, so this one goes to the KFFL AI, and it has landed on Pack Attack at 50.4% — which is the closest thing to a shrug it is capable of producing. The case is that once the quarterback spot gets filled these two rosters are separated by about a tenth of a point, and P Nacua is the single best player in the game. The case against is that Pack Attack is 1-3, scoring 99.3 a game, starting a quarterback they have not signed yet, and 11-41 against the field on the season, which is the worst mark in the league. Pack Attack, by a hair, but I would not put money on it.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 6
Record: Advantage Starrfavrerodg at 4-2
PPG Avg: Advantage Starrfavrerodg 124.55 to 118.68
Current Streak: Pack Attack W1
Last Meeting: 2025 — Pack Attack 174.47, Starrfavrerodg 58.32
Playoff Meetings: 1 (Pack Attack leads 1-0)

16hrs Ahead of You!! (2-2) vs Sportsfreak (1-3)

Sportsfreak scored 160.03 last week. After scoring 64.07 the week before. That is a swing of 95.96 points from one Sunday to the next, and it is the seventh largest week-to-week jump in the history of this league out of 3,740 of them. T McMillan went for 45.60 of it, the highest individual score anybody has managed all season.

And now T McMillan is on bye. So is X Worthy. So is B Young. Three starters gone in one week for a team that had just figured out how to score. The consolation is that J Daniels is back after missing three weeks due to a elbow injury. They get their quarterback back the same week they lose their best receiver, which is about right for a 1-3 team.

16hrs is 2-2 and leads this series 13-9, though Sportsfreak won the last meeting 135.17 to 82.56. K Murray is projected 14.76 and sitting on their bench while S Darnold starts at 14.01, I can't say I blame them however as K Murray has looked rough. C Williams is out for a fourth straight week. J Gibbs at 21.06 is the highest projection on the entire board this week.

Prediction: As mentioned, talk about hitting a team at the right time! 16hrs will need to capitalize on the fact that Sportsfreak is without a lot of points due to those bye weeks. I kind of have a feeling that Sportsfreak will come crashing back down to earth this week and fail to score over 100 points again. I like 16hrs to get the win as I expect Gibbs to get back to their usual 20+ point performances!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 22
Record: Advantage 16hrs at 13-9
PPG Avg: Advantage 16hrs 119.26 to 111.42
Current Streak: 16hrs L2
Last Meeting: 2025 — 16hrs 82.56, Sportsfreak 135.17

Big Papa (2-2) vs teamAlaska (2-2)

Big Papa's backfield has fallen apart. B Hall is doubtful, S Barkley is questionable, both are on the bench, and they are starting R Sanders in a running back slot. That is not a lineup decision, that is a hostage situation. J Coker is on bye on top of it, and they are projected 100.33, second lowest in the league.

teamAlaska is coming off 150.12, their best day of the year by a distance, and they got there on the back of K Monangai (8.00 this week) coming out of nowhere and D Maye (17.04) finally producing after that negative point week. They have won three straight in this series. The problem is the injury list, which is now long enough to be its own paragraph: A.J. Brown and J Price both on IR, and Z Flowers, J Addison and K Monangai all carrying questionable tags into Sunday. However all are expected to play. Big Papa leads the all-time series 13-10 but has lost three in a row in it and two in a row overall.

Prediction: Goff is in a smash spot for Big Papa the only thing that makes me pause a bit is that it isn't at home. Goff is not the same QB when on the road. I think the thing I am most interested to see is how Drake Maye follows up last week's performance. Will he relegate back to his first three weeks or will he continue to move forward and play like the MVP runner up from a year ago? I am going to lean towards the fact that he has a solid game and there are then three guys I really trust for points in Maye, JT and Zay Flowers whereas with Big Papa I do like Loveland and if M Harrison Jr was ever going to have a big game this is the week but I don't see it being enough. I like teamAlaska to get the win!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 23
Record: Advantage Big Papa at 13-10
PPG Avg: Advantage Big Papa 116.05 to 110.45
Current Streak: Big Papa L3
Last Meeting: 2025 — Big Papa 119.83, teamAlaska 143.4
Playoff Meetings: 1 (Big Papa leads 1-0)

BIGBOY! (1-3) vs pack slayer (2-2)

The reigning champion is 1-3 and has lost three in a row, and everybody in this league has spent four weeks writing them off, including me. So let me offer the one fact that should stop all of us.

In 2018, BIGBOY! came into the season as the reigning champion, started 1-3, and won the championship again. Same franchise, same record, same point in the calendar. They have also started 1-3 or worse three separate times and reached the playoffs in two of them. Reigning champions have started 1-3 seven times in this league's history and it has meant nothing at all on at least one very memorable occasion.

That said, this version does look worse. J Jefferson (13.26) is back in the lineup after missing a week but still questionable. T Etienne Jr. and T Bigsby are both on IR. J Jacobs isn't anywhere near playing. They are 13-39 against the field on the season, second worst in the league. And the schedule has not been kind — this is a team that is 1-3 while scoring 101.8 a game.

pack slayer is 2-2 and has the opposite problem, as usual. They are 37-15 against the field, third best in the league, and they have two wins. And they just lost K Walker III to a bye — the player who went 34.90 last week and who, with N Collins, accounted for 64.80 of their 120.13. D Swift and DJ Moore are both questionable on top of it. BIGBOY! owns this series 11-4, has won the last three, and is 3-0 in three playoff meetings.

Prediction: BIGBOY! avoiding one of the premier weapons in the league (K Walker) this week is maybe just what they need to kickstart a winning streak? I expect J Jefferson will play which will be a boost and J Brissett is in probably the best spot they could possibly be in as the Detroit pass defense is horrendous. I see this as a lower scoring game but the fact that BIGBOY! has a QB in a matchup I love and then the Jefferson/G Wilson/D London trio at WR I think that will be enough for them to get their 2nd win of the season!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 15
Record: Advantage BIGBOY! at 11-4
PPG Avg: Advantage BIGBOY! 126.58 to 113.97
Current Streak: BIGBOY! W3
Last Meeting: 2025 — BIGBOY! 143.55, pack slayer 91.83
Playoff Meetings: 3 (BIGBOY! leads 3-0)

Bossman (3-1) vs HHH (3-1) — GAME OF THE WEEK

Two 3-1 teams and the biggest swing on the board. Bossman sits at 87.6% to make the playoffs with a win and 66.0% with a loss. HHH goes from 70.3% down to 41.5% — a 29 point swing, the largest attached to any team in any game this week. And the KFFL AI makes it 50.6%, which is as close to nothing as it gets.

These two have arrived at 3-1 by completely different roads. Bossman is scoring 137.1 a game, is 43-9 against the field — the best mark in the league by a mile — and has one of the best players in this league in J Smith-Njigba (22.45). HHH is scoring 109.6, is 20-32 against the field, and has won three in a row. One of these teams is excellent and one of them has been getting away with it for a month, and the all-play table has been screaming about it since September.

Both have had to patch holes this week. HHH lost C Hubbard and H Butker to byes and has to fill a flex and a kicker spot. Bossman has M Pittman flagged out and T Kelce on bye, with K Allen available but questionable himself. And J Chase is questionable for HHH at 16.09 after the concussion that knocked him out of last week's game — if he is limited or doesn't play that is a huge blow!

The series is as tight as the game. Bossman leads it 12-9 across twenty-one meetings and the scoring gap is 108.61 to 107.90, which is less than a point a game across two decades. HHH has won both playoff meetings.

Prediction: The injury situation is going to play a huge factor here. If either Chase or Nabers sit it would be hard to pick HHH. If they both go, then things get really interesting as they are in nice spots and also McBride should be in line for a great game against the Detroit secondary! Bossman has enough weapons to get the job done and I expect they will do that again this week. Bossman with the win!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 21
Record: Advantage Bossman at 12-9
PPG Avg: Advantage Bossman 108.61 to 107.90
Current Streak: Bossman L1
Last Meeting: 2025 — Bossman 88.28, HHH 111.1
Playoff Meetings: 2 (HHH leads 2-0)

DaUnderdog (3-1) vs U Don't Know (3-1)

First place against second place, two 3-1 teams, and the two highest projections on the board. This is the best game of the week on talent even if it is not the one carrying the most playoff weight.

DaUnderdog has won three straight and is scoring 144.7 a game with the most points in the league. B Bowers (12.19) has been a different player since coming back from the injury that cost him the first two weeks. The catch is the injury report — T Higgins, S Diggs and B Bowers are all questionable, and D Adams is in the Monday night game, so a meaningful chunk of this does not settle until late.

U Don't Know finally lost last week, by 2.81 to pack slayer, and it was coming — they had gone 2-11 against the field the week before and won anyway. They are still 34-18 on the season and projected highest this week at 123.63, with A St. Brown (18.85) and J Allen (18.37) leading the way.

The history favors U Don't Know, who lead 12-8 across twenty meetings and outscore DaUnderdog by nine a game, and won the last meeting 143.17 to 127.87. DaUnderdog's one win in the postseason meeting is the exception.

Prediction: For this one, I want to start with two players. Josh Allen and Amon-Ra St Brown. Josh Allen always scores more points in competitive games and I expect that this week against the Rams. I also love the spot for St Brown as the Cardinals should be able to score but they themselves have been terrible against opposing WR's. The one other name to mention for U Don't Know is DK Metcalf. He has slowly been ramping up and I expect his biggest scoring output of the season this week. I am not convinced that Tee Higgins plays which is a disappointment after his great last week. I don't see enough scoring available for DaUnderdog this week. For them to win they will need one of those vintage 30+ point Christian McCaffery type of games but that is hard to predict and he is going up against a tough D! I like U Don't Know to win this one!

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 20
Record: Advantage U Don't Know at 12-8
PPG Avg: Advantage U Don't Know 109.79 to 100.84
Current Streak: DaUnderdog L2
Last Meeting: 2025 — DaUnderdog 127.87, U Don't Know 143.17
Playoff Meetings: 1 (DaUnderdog leads 1-0)

PackerFANatic7 (1-3) vs Rapids Plungers (2-2)

This is the one that worries me. PackerFANatic7 is projected for 88.52 even after filling their empty defensive slot (I am guessing on the projection for a D player), which is nearly twelve points below the next lowest team and the only projection under 95 on the board. Look at the running back situation: I Davis (3.63), M Washington Jr. (4.07) and K Miller (4.01) are the names, and J Warren (11.66) is sitting on the bench. Could a trade be in the works? I certainly wouldn't expect that Warren isn't starting or even Burden but what do I know?

They are 1-3 and have lost two straight, and the schedule has not helped — they are 19-33 against the field. There is talent here, C Lamb (14.90) and D Prescott (18.43) are both playing Thursday night and will put up points, but last week C Lamb scored 42.05 and the other ten starters combined for 61.75, which is not a formula that wins games.

Rapids Plungers is 2-2 and leads this series 7-2 with a scoring edge of better than twenty-one a game, which is the most lopsided margin in any series on the board this week. B Robinson has turned into the player the #2 overall pick was supposed to be. They do lose R Rice to a bye. PackerFANatic7's one claim is the postseason, where they beat Rapids Plungers in their only playoff meeting back in 2017.

Prediction: PackerFANatic7 is fighting and clawing to find a way to make their team respectable. If you haven't gotten a trade request from PackerFANatic7 you should probably feel a little left out OR maybe your team is just not very good! Rapids Plungers isn't necessarily lighting the world on fire with their play but they have been able to score over 100 points each game this year and if they can do that again this week I think they walk away with the win. With that said, it seems very likely they can get over the century mark and I like Rapids Plungers to win this one.

Historical Look at this Match-Up:

Regular Season Match-ups: 9
Record: Advantage Rapids Plungers at 7-2
PPG Avg: Advantage Rapids Plungers 131.41 to 109.79
Current Streak: PackerFANatic7 L2
Last Meeting: 2025 — PackerFANatic7 97.22, Rapids Plungers 105.79
Playoff Meetings: 1 (PackerFANatic7 leads 1-0)

My Picks

16hrs Ahead of You!! over Sportsfreak
teamAlaska over Big Papa
BIGBOY! over pack slayer
Bossman over HHH
U Don't Know over DaUnderdog
Rapids Plungers over PackerFANatic7