Week 9 Preview
Ryan's Picks Record:
Last Week: 3-3
Overall: 27-21
KFFL AI Picks Record:
Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 32-24
KFFL AI Picks for Week 9:
U Don't Know (5-3) over Pack Attack (3-5)
16hrs Ahead of You!! (5-3) over pack slayer (3-5)
Starrfavrerodg (4-4) over Big Papa (5-3)
PackerFANatic7 (3-5) over BIGBOY! (2-6)
Bossman (5-3) over teamAlaska (4-4)
DaUnderdog (5-3) over Sportsfreak (1-7)
Rapids Plungers (4-4) over HHH (7-1)
Six games left in the regular season, and the race is officially on! As mentioned in my note yesterday that starting this week, the site has a new Current Season menu with two pages that update every Tuesday: Playoff Race, with every team's odds and who has clinched or been eliminated, and The Road Ahead, which ranks how hard each team's remaining schedule is. On the easy side are BIGBOY! and HHH, whose remaining opponents win only 43.6% of their all-play games. On the hard side are pack slayer (58.0%) and teamAlaska (57.7%), who have the toughest roads in the league.
Before the weekend even starts, the Jaguars and Ravens play tonight, and eight of our fourteen teams have a starter in that game. And there was a trade this week, a family one: PackerFANatic7 sent J Warren and KC Concepcion Jr. to HHH for B Tuten. Father and son, doing business!
The Playoff Picture
Nobody can clinch a spot or be eliminated this week. The math simply won't allow it yet. But it is getting close:
- HHH (7-1) could clinch as early as next week, but only if they beat Rapids Plungers this week and U Don't Know, Big Papa and Bossman all win too.
- Sportsfreak (1-7) can be eliminated next week if they lose to DaUnderdog this week.
The first six spots right now: HHH, Bossman, DaUnderdog, 16hrs, U Don't Know and Big Papa. Starrfavrerodg and Rapids Plungers are both 4-4 and one game back. Historically it takes eight wins to feel safe in this league, and seven makes it a coin flip.
Pack Attack (3-5) vs U Don't Know (5-3)
This series is as even as it gets: 20 regular season meetings, 10-10. And this is the second biggest playoff swing of the week, about 32 points of playoff probability. Pack Attack is 3-5 and at 29.4%. A win puts them right back in the thick of it at 4-5. A loss makes 3-6 a very hard hole to climb out of.
Pack Attack has a new quarterback. With L Jackson on IR, it is M Willis (14.20), the same player who sat on Starrfavrerodg's bench earlier this season. J Love is on IR too, and T Pollard and W Robinson are both on bye, so this is a patched-together roster. P Nacua (23.40) is projected highest in the game, M Golden (11.76) and J Williams (9.09) give them some help at receiver, and E Egbuka and new tight end M Taylor are both questionable but expected to play. And keep an eye on tonight: C Rodriguez Jr. could be in for a nice night if B Tuten sits.
U Don't Know has its own problems. M Evans is questionable and projected for 0.25, and with DK Metcalf on bye and R Doubs on IR, there is no healthy receiver on the bench, so they will likely need a waiver pickup. A St. Brown (15.76) and G Kittle (13.57) lead the way, and J Allen (17.52) plays Monday night with P Mahomes (17.94) sitting on the bench again. Pack Attack won last year's meeting 109.64 to 71.17.
Prediction:
I don't pick my own games, so this one goes to the KFFL AI, and it likes U Don't Know at 56.0%. Yahoo has this one at 105.84 to 105.91, seven hundredths of a point, but that is with M Evans' 0.25 in the lineup. Add a waiver receiver and U Don't Know is up by about eight. The case for Pack Attack is P Nacua and a quarterback who should be an upgrade over a waiver fill-in, and if B Tuten sits tonight, C Rodriguez Jr. could be a nice surprise. The case for U Don't Know is that they have more healthy talent and Pack Attack is without its starting quarterback and starting running back. The KFFL AI's pick is U Don't Know.
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 20
- Record: Dead even at 10-10
- PPG Avg: Advantage Pack Attack 115.34 to 111.23
- Current Streak: Pack Attack W1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — Pack Attack 109.64, U Don't Know 71.17
Big Papa (5-3) vs Starrfavrerodg (4-4) — GAME OF THE WEEK
Sixth place against seventh, the last playoff spot against the team right behind it, and the biggest playoff swing on the board. Big Papa is at 60.6% with a win and 24.5% with a loss! Starrfavrerodg goes from 49.7% with a win to 15.5% with a loss. That is more than 34 points of playoff probability on the line for both of them! Wow!
And the last time these two met? Big Papa won 94.81 to 94.79. Two hundredths of a point. That is the closest game in the history of this league. Every one of the more than 2,000 games this league has ever played, and none of them were closer. The series is tied 3-3.
Big Papa has won three straight, including that 72.67 point win last week, and they are 39-65 against the field. They just keep finding a way. And the quarterback story takes another turn: C.J. Stroud is back from his bye and is on the bench (14.89), while J Goff (17.11) starts. S Barkley is questionable, B Hall is questionable on the bench, and J Meyers plays tonight. Big Papa also has a new kicker in K Fairbairn, who was kicking for Rapids Plungers a week ago.
Starrfavrerodg is coming off a 140.95 point week. K Cousins (13.46) starts again with A Rodgers on bye, and T Allgeier (9.60) made it into the flex after scoring 34.00 on the bench last week. K Williams (13.99), J Cook III (11.41) and C Watson (questionable, 11.77) round it out. The KFFL AI has Starrfavrerodg at 53.3%.
Prediction: This is a huge game for all of the reasons mentioned above! I don't love the matchups for really any player. Goff is the player in the best spot this week as he goes up against a bad Miami D and maybe Saquon is in for a nice game against his former squad? That's about all I can find. Watson may get shadowed by one of the better defenders in the league and Cousins against SF, and Cook against Min are really tough matchups. I like Big Papa to once again find a way to win and shoot their playoff chances up significantly!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 6
- Record: Dead even at 3-3
- PPG Avg: Advantage Big Papa 128.21 to 122.03
- Current Streak: Big Papa W1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — Big Papa 94.81, Starrfavrerodg 94.79
16hrs Ahead of You!! (5-3) vs pack slayer (3-5)
16hrs has won two straight, has scored 130.8 a game this season, and is up to 82.3% to make the playoffs. pack slayer finally got a win last week and is hanging on at 8.8%. The history is not on 16hrs' side, though: pack slayer leads this series 11-5 and outscores them by 14 points a game. 16hrs did win last year's meeting 100.96 to 62.99.
16hrs has a full lineup this week. J Gibbs (20.35) is projected highest in the game, and D Smith (questionable, 7.61) is finally in the flex with O Cooper Jr. and D Cooper on the bench. G Pickens and M Wilson are questionable too, and C Williams, R Odunze and B Irving all play Sunday night.
pack slayer gets N Collins (12.40) and W Marks (11.54) back from their byes. K Walker III (17.65), M Stafford (16.15) and D Swift (13.42) lead the way, and DJ Moore is questionable on Monday night. pack slayer has the toughest remaining schedule in the league, so this is pretty close to must win. The KFFL AI has 16hrs at 55.2%.
Prediction: I am making this pick based on the assumption that all of the players with the Q tag play. If that happens then I like 16hrs to find a way to win. They can beat you in so many ways and I don't see too many weak spots whereas with pack slayer that isn't the case. Could I see them winning? Of course. Do I think they do it? No, I like 16hrs to get the win and keep pushing for that #2 seed and first round bye!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 16
- Record: Advantage pack slayer at 11-5
- PPG Avg: Advantage pack slayer 113.49 to 99.24
- Current Streak: 16hrs W1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — 16hrs 100.96, pack slayer 62.99
BIGBOY! (2-6) vs PackerFANatic7 (3-5)
Two teams that need a miracle, and one of them is going to get a lot closer to needing two. BIGBOY! is at 3.4% and PackerFANatic7 is at 7.1%. The two-time defending champion has lost three straight. PackerFANatic7 has won two straight and just made the biggest move of the week.
That trade with HHH sent away J Warren, who scored 21.53 for PackerFANatic7 just last week, and KC Concepcion Jr., and brought back B Tuten (questionable, 10.73), who plays tonight. Bold move for a team that is 3-5. D Prescott (17.81), C Lamb (15.24) and B Aubrey (11.05) are once again the Dallas stack, L Burden III (10.66) has been producing, and F Warner (7.45) has also landed on the roster. The KFFL AI likes PackerFANatic7 at 53.1%.
BIGBOY! has J Jefferson (13.85), D London (13.16) and J Jacobs (11.86), but G Bernard and the Steelers D are on bye, and D Samuel Sr. (questionable, 4.22) is in the flex while C Godwin Jr. (7.93) sits on the bench. BIGBOY! leads this series 6-4 and won the only playoff meeting, back in 2017 on the way to its first title. PackerFANatic7 won last year's meeting 104.94 to 87.45.
Prediction: PackerFANatic7 is going to be watching very closely to the inactives tonight as that could swing this game in BIGBOY!'s favor. If Tuten sits they would seemingly be left starting D Singletary. BIGBOY! is also dealing with a big injury as G Wilson apparently has a concussion and to be honest I don't expect him to play. Maybe Deebo will though and that would certainly help. This is a close one and while I expect the reigning back to back champ to put up a fight I think PackerFANatic7 knocks them out and all but ends their season. PackerFANatic7 with the win!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 10
- Record: Advantage BIGBOY! at 6-4
- PPG Avg: Advantage BIGBOY! 114.43 to 108.70
- Current Streak: BIGBOY! L1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — BIGBOY! 87.45, PackerFANatic7 104.94
- Playoff Meetings: 1 (BIGBOY! leads 1-0)
Bossman (5-3) vs teamAlaska (4-4)
Bossman scored 176.39 last week with J Burrow's 49.91, the best game by any player all season, and they are 86-18 against the field. This week J Smith-Njigba (23.56) is projected highest of anybody in this game, and Bossman has four starters playing tonight: D Henry, T Hunter, the Jaguars D and F Oluokun. T Kelce is questionable in the flex and T Shough (15.01) is on the bench again.
teamAlaska (4-4) is at 16.8% and has one of the toughest roads left in the league, so this is a big one. After four straight zeros, K Monangai is finally on the bench, and J Price (7.78) gets the start. D Maye (17.26) and J Taylor (13.59) lead the way, Z Flowers plays tonight, and A.J. Brown (questionable, 7.72) is on the bench while M Lemon (6.52) starts. The series is about as even as it gets, teamAlaska up 11-10 and the scoring separated by half a point a game, but Bossman won both playoff meetings. The KFFL AI likes Bossman at 70.0%, the most confident pick of the week.
Prediction: Bossman does what they always have done is win and win a lot so this is the prediction section and I feel like I would be silly to pick them to do anything but win! I am not sure if Jonathan Taylor will play this week (trade pending) and Zay Flowers will have a backup throwing him the ball. Addison is in a nice spot for teamAlaska but I don't see them having enough firepower to win. I like Bossman to keep things rolling and get the W!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 21
- Record: Advantage teamAlaska at 11-10
- PPG Avg: Advantage teamAlaska 118.00 to 117.53
- Current Streak: Bossman W2
- Last Meeting: 2025 — Bossman 125.93, teamAlaska 118.86
- Playoff Meetings: 2 (Bossman leads 2-0)
DaUnderdog (5-3) vs Sportsfreak (1-7)
Sportsfreak's season is on the line. Lose this one and Sportsfreak can be mathematically eliminated as soon as next week. And Sportsfreak actually owns this series, 14-11, and won last year's meeting 101.33 to 75.81. They even beat DaUnderdog in the 2017 playoffs on the way to the Super Bowl.
DaUnderdog has lost two straight after a five game winning streak, including last week's 139.67 point loss to HHH, and they need to fill two empty spots: there is no kicker and no D in the lineup as of Thursday. Fill those and DaUnderdog projects at about 111. T Lawrence (16.04) plays tonight, C McCaffrey (questionable, 15.60) is back in the flex, and B Bowers (13.56) and T Higgins (12.94), who went for 39.75 last week, lead the rest. T Warren (11.04) is on the bench again with no spot to put him in.
Sportsfreak finally put A Mitchell in the lineup (7.50) after he scored 25.10 on the bench last week. J Daniels (15.86) and C Brown (13.39) lead the way, R Smith plays tonight at D, and A Kamara is questionable. The KFFL AI has DaUnderdog at 65.7%.
Prediction: This Sportsfreak team is not good and DaUnderdog has some solid players. I can't pick a one win team to win this week so I am going with DaUnderdog to win. I will say though that Chase Brown is always good for a 40 point game once a year. This matchup could be the game that we see a big one from him and that would certainly help Sportsfreak try and get win #2! I can't predict that to happen so I am picking DaUnderdog!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 25
- Record: Advantage Sportsfreak at 14-11
- PPG Avg: Advantage Sportsfreak 111.20 to 100.47
- Current Streak: DaUnderdog L1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — DaUnderdog 75.81, Sportsfreak 101.33
- Playoff Meetings: 1 (Sportsfreak leads 1-0)
HHH (7-1) vs Rapids Plungers (4-4)
HHH has won seven straight, is at 98.0% to make the playoffs, and is tied with BIGBOY! for the easiest remaining schedule in the league. But here is a strange one: the KFFL AI is picking against them, Rapids Plungers at 55.8%. Rapids Plungers leads this series 10-8, outscores HHH by 13 points a game, and won last year's meeting 121.42 to 65.85. HHH did win both playoff meetings, though.
HHH's newest addition, J Warren, is on bye in his first week, and KC Concepcion Jr. (8.32) is on the bench. M Nabers (questionable, 11.59) is back in the flex, J Chase (16.39) leads the way, and J Love (14.52) and T McBride (11.93) round out the core.
Rapids Plungers is coming off a 60.81 point disaster and really needs this one at 4-4 and 34.8%. B Purdy (19.38) is back from his bye and projected highest in the game, C Olave (12.15) is back too, B Robinson (17.21) leads the backfield, and P Washington plays tonight. A win and Rapids Plungers is right back in the race. A loss and HHH can start thinking about clinching.
Prediction: This is a fun one! Purdy is in one of the better spots for any QB this week so that will help but the rest of the teams matchups aren't the greatest. For Rapids Plungers to win they really need Parker Washington and Chris Olave to get back to what they were in the first three weeks of the season! For HHH, they have some really fun players. Love, Chase, Nabers and McBride! Those 4 players have the potential to lead them to a championship and win about any game! I think Rapids Plungers makes this a game but I do like HHH to keep things rolling and get their 8th win of the season!
Historical Look at this Match-Up:
- Regular Season Match-ups: 18
- Record: Advantage Rapids Plungers at 10-8
- PPG Avg: Advantage Rapids Plungers 118.59 to 105.32
- Current Streak: HHH L1
- Last Meeting: 2025 — HHH 65.85, Rapids Plungers 121.42
- Playoff Meetings: 2 (HHH leads 2-0)
My Picks
Big Papa over Starrfavrerodg
16hrs Ahead of You!! over pack slayer
PackerFANatic7 over BIGBOY!
Bossman over teamAlaska
DaUnderdog over Sportsfreak
HHH over Rapids Plungers